Employment Projections

In 2009, the Capital District Regional Planning Commission finalized employment projections which it had created under contract with the Region’s Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO), the Capital District Transportation Committee. The projections predict major industry group employment by place of work to the year 2040.

Since the purpose of the projections was to generate projected traffic loads on the Region’s surface transportation network, the geographic unit for analysis was the Region’s 925 Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs), and the four major industry groups were constructed based on their traffic generating features using 3-digit North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) codes. The major industry groups, Retail; Services; Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate (FIRE); and Other are described in the NAICS Table below.

NAICS 2002 # NAICS Description
44-45, 71-72 Retail Trade, Leisure & Hospitality
44-45 Retail Trade
441 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
442 Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores
443 Electronics and Appliance Stores
444 Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers
445 Food and Beverage Stores
446 Health and Personal Care Stores
447 Gasoline Stations
448 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores
451 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores
452 General Merchandise Stores
453 Miscellaneous Store Retailers
454 Nonstore Retailers
71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
711 Performing Arts, Spectator Sports, and Related Industries
712 Museums, Historical Sites, and Similar Institutions
713 Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries
72 Accommodation and Food Services
721 Accommodation
722 Food Services and Drinking Places
54-56, 61-62, 81 Professional & Business Services, Educational & Health Services, Other Services
54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
541 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
55 Management of Companies and Enterprises
551 Management of Companies and Enterprises
56 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services
561 Administrative and Support Services
562 Waste Management and Remediation Services
61 Educational Services
611 Educational Services
62 Health Care and Social Assistance
621 Ambulatory Health Care Services
622 Hospitals
623 Nursing and Residential Care Facilities
624 Social Assistance
81 Other Services (except Public Administration)
811 Repair and Maintenance
812 Personal and Laundry Services
813 Religious, Grant making, Civic, Professional, and Similar Organizations
814 Private Households
Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate
51, 52-53 Information & Financial Activities
51 Information
511 Publishing Industries (except Internet)
512 Motion Picture and Sound Recording Industries
515 Broadcasting (except Internet)
516 Internet Publishing and Broadcasting
517 Telecommunications
518 Internet Service Providers, Web Search Portals, and Data Processing Services
519 Other Information Services
52 Finance and Insurance
521 Monetary Authorities – Central Bank
522 Credit Intermediation and Related Activities
523 Securities, Commodity Contracts, and Other Financial Investments and Related Activities
524 Insurance Carriers and Related Activities
525 Funds, Trusts, and Other Financial Vehicles
53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
531 Real Estate
532 Rental and Leasing Services
533 Lessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works)
11-21, 23, 31-33, 42, 48-49, 22, 92-95, 99 Natural Resources & Mining, Construction, Manufacturing, Wholesale, Transportation & Warehousing, Utilities, Government
11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
111 Crop Production
112 Animal Production
113 Forestry and Logging
114 Fishing, Hunting and Trapping
115 Support Activities for Agriculture and Forestry
21 Mining
211 Oil and Gas Extraction
212 Mining (except Oil and Gas)
213 Support Activities for Mining
22 Utilities
221 Utilities
23 Construction
236 Construction of Buildings
237 Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction
238 Specialty Trade Contractors
31-33 Manufacturing
311 Food Manufacturing
312 Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing
313 Textile Mills
314 Textile Product Mills
315 Apparel Manufacturing
316 Leather and Allied Product Manufacturing
321 Wood Product Manufacturing
322 Paper Manufacturing
323 Printing and Related Support Activities
324 Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing
325 Chemical Manufacturing
326 Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing
327 Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing
331 Primary Metal Manufacturing
332 Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing
333 Machinery Manufacturing
334 Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing
335 Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component Manufacturing
336 Transportation Equipment Manufacturing
337 Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing
339 Miscellaneous Manufacturing
42 Wholesale Trade
423 Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods
424 Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods
425 Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers
48-49 Transportation and Warehousing
481 Air Transportation
482 Rail Transportation
483 Water Transportation
484 Truck Transportation
485 Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation
486 Pipeline Transportation
487 Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation
488 Support Activities for Transportation
491 Postal Service
492 Couriers and Messengers
493 Warehousing and Storage
92 Public Administration
921 Executive, Legislative, and Other General Government Support
922 Justice, Public Order, and Safety Activities
923 Administration of Human Resource Programs
924 Administration of Environmental Quality Programs
925 Administration of Housing Programs, Urban Planning, and Community Development
926 Administration of Economic Programs
927 Space Research and Technology
928 National Security and International Affairs


The starting point for the employment projections was the 2000 Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP), which provides estimates of employment by 3-digit NAICS industry sector for each of the Region’s TAZs. The CTPP data were used to distribute the most accurate current employment data series, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) 790 data, by TAZ. The BLS 790 data were available for each year from 2000 through 2005, so that the initial result obtained was major industry group employment estimates by TAZ for the years 2000 through 2005, inclusive. Projections through 2040 in five-year increments were made using log-linear models for each major industry group in each TAZ. The final results were then reviewed individually for reasonableness based on the exact TAZ locations and adjusted as necessary by consensus of a group of staffers from both CDRPC and CDTC.

For the data published below, the TAZs have been combined to produce a consistent set of employment projections by minor civil division. Unfortunately, data are not available for the Village of East Nassau and the separate parts of the Village of Nassau in the towns of Nassau and Schodack in Rensselaer County, and the villages of Corinth and Waterford in Saratoga County because they represent only sub-parts of the TAZs in which they are located.