Employment Projections
In 2009, the Capital District Regional Planning Commission finalized employment projections which it had created under contract with the Region’s Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO), the Capital District Transportation Committee. The projections predict major industry group employment by place of work to the year 2040.
Since the purpose of the projections was to generate projected traffic loads on the Region’s surface transportation network, the geographic unit for analysis was the Region’s 925 Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs), and the four major industry groups were constructed based on their traffic generating features using 3-digit North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) codes. The major industry groups, Retail; Services; Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate (FIRE); and Other are described in the NAICS Table below.
| NAICS 2002 # | NAICS Description |
|---|---|
| Retail | |
| 44-45, 71-72 | Retail Trade, Leisure & Hospitality |
| 44-45 | Retail Trade |
| 441 | Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers |
| 442 | Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores |
| 443 | Electronics and Appliance Stores |
| 444 | Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers |
| 445 | Food and Beverage Stores |
| 446 | Health and Personal Care Stores |
| 447 | Gasoline Stations |
| 448 | Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores |
| 451 | Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores |
| 452 | General Merchandise Stores |
| 453 | Miscellaneous Store Retailers |
| 454 | Nonstore Retailers |
| 71 | Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation |
| 711 | Performing Arts, Spectator Sports, and Related Industries |
| 712 | Museums, Historical Sites, and Similar Institutions |
| 713 | Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries |
| 72 | Accommodation and Food Services |
| 721 | Accommodation |
| 722 | Food Services and Drinking Places |
| Services | |
| 54-56, 61-62, 81 | Professional & Business Services, Educational & Health Services, Other Services |
| 54 | Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services |
| 541 | Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services |
| 55 | Management of Companies and Enterprises |
| 551 | Management of Companies and Enterprises |
| 56 | Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services |
| 561 | Administrative and Support Services |
| 562 | Waste Management and Remediation Services |
| 61 | Educational Services |
| 611 | Educational Services |
| 62 | Health Care and Social Assistance |
| 621 | Ambulatory Health Care Services |
| 622 | Hospitals |
| 623 | Nursing and Residential Care Facilities |
| 624 | Social Assistance |
| 81 | Other Services (except Public Administration) |
| 811 | Repair and Maintenance |
| 812 | Personal and Laundry Services |
| 813 | Religious, Grant making, Civic, Professional, and Similar Organizations |
| 814 | Private Households |
| Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate | |
| 51, 52-53 | Information & Financial Activities |
| 51 | Information |
| 511 | Publishing Industries (except Internet) |
| 512 | Motion Picture and Sound Recording Industries |
| 515 | Broadcasting (except Internet) |
| 516 | Internet Publishing and Broadcasting |
| 517 | Telecommunications |
| 518 | Internet Service Providers, Web Search Portals, and Data Processing Services |
| 519 | Other Information Services |
| 52 | Finance and Insurance |
| 521 | Monetary Authorities – Central Bank |
| 522 | Credit Intermediation and Related Activities |
| 523 | Securities, Commodity Contracts, and Other Financial Investments and Related Activities |
| 524 | Insurance Carriers and Related Activities |
| 525 | Funds, Trusts, and Other Financial Vehicles |
| 53 | Real Estate and Rental and Leasing |
| 531 | Real Estate |
| 532 | Rental and Leasing Services |
| 533 | Lessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works) |
| Other | |
| 11-21, 23, 31-33, 42, 48-49, 22, 92-95, 99 | Natural Resources & Mining, Construction, Manufacturing, Wholesale, Transportation & Warehousing, Utilities, Government |
| 11 | Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting |
| 111 | Crop Production |
| 112 | Animal Production |
| 113 | Forestry and Logging |
| 114 | Fishing, Hunting and Trapping |
| 115 | Support Activities for Agriculture and Forestry |
| 21 | Mining |
| 211 | Oil and Gas Extraction |
| 212 | Mining (except Oil and Gas) |
| 213 | Support Activities for Mining |
| 22 | Utilities |
| 221 | Utilities |
| 23 | Construction |
| 236 | Construction of Buildings |
| 237 | Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction |
| 238 | Specialty Trade Contractors |
| 31-33 | Manufacturing |
| 311 | Food Manufacturing |
| 312 | Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing |
| 313 | Textile Mills |
| 314 | Textile Product Mills |
| 315 | Apparel Manufacturing |
| 316 | Leather and Allied Product Manufacturing |
| 321 | Wood Product Manufacturing |
| 322 | Paper Manufacturing |
| 323 | Printing and Related Support Activities |
| 324 | Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing |
| 325 | Chemical Manufacturing |
| 326 | Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing |
| 327 | Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing |
| 331 | Primary Metal Manufacturing |
| 332 | Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing |
| 333 | Machinery Manufacturing |
| 334 | Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing |
| 335 | Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component Manufacturing |
| 336 | Transportation Equipment Manufacturing |
| 337 | Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing |
| 339 | Miscellaneous Manufacturing |
| 42 | Wholesale Trade |
| 423 | Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods |
| 424 | Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods |
| 425 | Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers |
| 48-49 | Transportation and Warehousing |
| 481 | Air Transportation |
| 482 | Rail Transportation |
| 483 | Water Transportation |
| 484 | Truck Transportation |
| 485 | Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation |
| 486 | Pipeline Transportation |
| 487 | Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation |
| 488 | Support Activities for Transportation |
| 491 | Postal Service |
| 492 | Couriers and Messengers |
| 493 | Warehousing and Storage |
| 92 | Public Administration |
| 921 | Executive, Legislative, and Other General Government Support |
| 922 | Justice, Public Order, and Safety Activities |
| 923 | Administration of Human Resource Programs |
| 924 | Administration of Environmental Quality Programs |
| 925 | Administration of Housing Programs, Urban Planning, and Community Development |
| 926 | Administration of Economic Programs |
| 927 | Space Research and Technology |
| 928 | National Security and International Affairs |
Methodology
The starting point for the employment projections was the 2000 Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP), which provides estimates of employment by 3-digit NAICS industry sector for each of the Region’s TAZs. The CTPP data were used to distribute the most accurate current employment data series, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) 790 data, by TAZ. The BLS 790 data were available for each year from 2000 through 2005, so that the initial result obtained was major industry group employment estimates by TAZ for the years 2000 through 2005, inclusive. Projections through 2040 in five-year increments were made using log-linear models for each major industry group in each TAZ. The final results were then reviewed individually for reasonableness based on the exact TAZ locations and adjusted as necessary by consensus of a group of staffers from both CDRPC and CDTC.
For the data published below, the TAZs have been combined to produce a consistent set of employment projections by minor civil division. Unfortunately, data are not available for the Village of East Nassau and the separate parts of the Village of Nassau in the towns of Nassau and Schodack in Rensselaer County, and the villages of Corinth and Waterford in Saratoga County because they represent only sub-parts of the TAZs in which they are located.